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Predictable Payouts: PG + SJM as Dividend Anchors

When markets obsess over AI capex and quarterly plot twists, cash-return predictability is an edge. Procter & Gamble just reaffirmed its quarterly payout—now $1.0568 per share—and J.M. Smucker approved $1.10 for December. These are not fireworks; they’re the metronome that lets income investors plan the bills.

The Shape of “Predictable”

P&G’s board declared a $1.0568 quarterly dividend at its Oct. 14 meeting, payable Nov. 17 to holders of record Oct. 24. That keeps a streak that now runs 135 years of paying and 69 years of raises—a living case study in dividend habit.

Smucker’s board approved $1.10 per share, payable Dec. 1 to shareholders of record Nov. 14. The cadence is as clocklike as its brands: coffee, peanut butter, pet snacks—categories that rarely vanish from pantries.

“Predictable” here means three things: a sane payout ratio, mid-single-digit growth, and a clear calendar (ex-date → record → pay date) you can plan around. Both companies check those boxes today with room to maneuver.

Yield vs. Safety (and Why Boring Wins)

Yields wobble with price; the check is the check. At today’s quotes, annualized payments come to about 2.8% for P&G and 4.2% for Smucker (details in the table). If you’re trading a fraction of yield for coverage and low earnings volatility, that’s usually a fair swap in staples—especially when you expect to own for years, not weeks.

Coverage looks fine. For P&G, fiscal-year 2025 diluted EPS was $6.51; against a $4.2272 annual dividend, that’s roughly 65% payout—comfortably within a blue-chip zone. Smucker maintained FY26 adjusted EPS guidance of $8.50–$9.50; midpoint math against a $4.40 annual dividend implies a ~49% payout. Not hair-raising.

When you see a headline yield that looks “off,” run your own arithmetic: annualized dividend ÷ current price. If the site disagrees with the company’s declared amount, trust IR first and note the mismatch.

Cash Cadence You Can Actually Plan Around

Timing matters if you live on distributions. Smucker’s record date is Nov. 14 with a Dec. 1 pay; the ex-dividend date is Nov. 14 on most calendars, so you must own before that morning to get the cash. P&G’s most recent ex-div date was Oct. 24, paying Nov. 17. Stagger a couple of these staple payers and you can turn quarterly drips into near-monthly inflows—without chasing fragile 7–8% yields.

A practical pair-trade: hold PG for mid-quarter and SJM to catch month-end/early-month payments. Layer one utility or telecom and you’ve got a tidy cash ladder that lands checks in different weeks.

What Could Go Wrong (So You’re Not Surprised)

Input costs bite first. Coffee and packaging resin spikes can pressure Smucker’s margin; pulp, plastics, and advertising spend can nudge P&G’s. If those persist, expect slower raises, not necessarily cuts. Both firms also carry ongoing brand and capacity investments; a big swing in capex or M&A can pause growth while still keeping the base dividend safe. Guidance can wobble; Smucker’s outlook this year has been a tug-of-war between coffee strength and softness elsewhere. Build that into your expectations.

How to Use This (Only if it helps)

• Use ex-dates to schedule inflows around your monthly expenses.
• Reinvest half, take half in cash to reduce sequence risk in retirement.
• Add on periodic dips around earnings chatter—not around record dates, when prices can gap in unhelpful ways.

Dividend Metrics (as of Oct. 27, 2025, ET)

If you want your portfolio to feel less like a trampoline and more like a well-worn porch swing, PG and SJM still do the job—durable brands, covered payouts, mid-single-digit growth, and ex-dates you can live by. Build the rest of your ladder around them and let the metronome do its work.

Not financial advice. Do your own research.

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Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.